In a previous post, I discussed a warm and fuzzy version of Pascal's Wager. Today, something a bit more extreme.
Some Christians believe that the "end times" are coming as soon as 2008. Allowing three and half years for the Great Tribulation, that would put the Second Coming sometime in 2012. Coincidentally (OR IS IT?), December 21, 2012 is the Mother of All Solstices, when the Mayan calendar's odometer rolls over into a new age.
How exactly did the Mayan astronomers and the Biblical prophets synchronize their watches? And why didn't someone tell the Millerites, who abandoned their farms or quit their jobs in anticipation of October 22, 1844?
What would Pascal do? Would he profess belief in the Second Coming while quietly putting away money in his 401K plan? It's a huge waste of money if he gets Raptured. On the other hand, the scoffers who die in the Great Tribulation lose their lives AND their 401Ks. Would Pascal max out his credit cards, figuring that the money lenders will be wiped out along with everyone else?
The Second Coming is the original vaporware. Christians have been expecting Jesus to come back Real Soon Now for 2,000 years, and they've been wrong every single time. By induction, they're almost certainly wrong this time. Even if you believe that the Christians will be right sooner or later, it's almost certain that their timing is wrong now. And that's a purely statistical argument that doesn't even look at the validity of their belief system.
1 comment:
Pascal's Wager only makes sense if you already assume that Christianity is the "true" religion. But if you take a more global view, and recognize (as is the case) that there have been (beliefs in) thousands and thousands of gods throughout human history, then the wager becomes more problematic. Which god are you going to bet on? If you choose the wrong one then you lose and spend an eternity in Hell. But how can you choose the right one to bet on among the many thousands of choices? It is like some kind of nightmare lottery in which the chances are one in, say, 10,000 that you will win, but if you lose, you lose big. The ancient Athenians had a different approach, an altar to the Unknown God, that is, any gods they didn't know about or forgot to mention. Although they believed in jealous and vindictive gods, they didn't think of one so jealous that he would exclude belief in all other gods. I suppose they could have made an altar to the "Unknown but Super Powerful God that makes all other gods obsolete." But they would no doubt have put a little altar next to it for, "You Other Gods, just kidding." There are few outs in religion, which is why most people just accept the religion of their parents and don't worry about the odds.
Post a Comment